There is no such thing as commercial music before the event. It is only commercial after it has been successful in the market. Before then it is just another piece of work which might or might not become a hit.

This would be the quantum physics theory of hit records. If it was to be an ontology of the world, it would say that there is no necessity. Pre the event, things only exist in potential and could go whichever way.

Like I said in a previous piece about trust, it is a contextual matter. There are some records that have more potential for commercial success than others. None have a solid guarantee. Likewise in life there are some things more likely to happen than others. Very little, if anything, is certain.